Polls are now closed in the great state of Florida, where we’ll be tracking the results for the Democratic primary in Florida’s 8th District, and the GOP primary in Florida’s 16th. There are also a number of other primaries in FL-09 (D), FL-10 (D), and FL-15 (D), but we won’t be focusing too heavily on those rinky-dink races.
RESULTS: Associated Press | FL Department of State
12:17AM: It’s ROONEY!
11:23PM (David): In FL-16, Rooney now has an 800-vote lead with just 3% of precincts remaining.
11:14PM (David): Don’t touch that dial – we’ll be up and running with an Alaska thread any moment now. Polls close there at midnight eastern time.
11:06PM: 77% in, and Harrell is back up by 80. In the words of the immortal Samuel L. Jackson, hang on to your butts.
10:45PM: 75% in, and Rooney is up by 300. Over in FL-09, with 93% reporting, Bill Mitchell has a 950 vote lead over former Plant City Mayor John Dicks. That’s something of an upset for the DCCC, who had hoped that Dicks could make this an interesting race. Guess not.
10:29PM: 72% in, and Rooney is hodling onto a 210 vote lead.
10:08PM: With 66% in right now, Rooney is up by 200 votes.
9:58PM: Over in FL-24, Suzanne Kosmas has beaten Clint Curtis by 72-28. No doubt that Curtis will soon gather “sworn affidavits” from voters showing that he actually won.
9:51PM: The see-saw continues in FL-16, where Rooney is back up by 140 votes with 54% in.
9:43PM: Harrell is now up by 310 votes with 49% reporting. Keller is holding on to his 2600 vote lead with 97% in.
9:17PM: Looks like we can now officially close the book on FL-08. With 93% of precincts reporting, Grayson has won by a 48-28-17 margin.
9:07PM: It’s even tighter in FL-16 now, with Harrell leading by only 70 votes.
8:46PM: Harrell’s lead is now down to about 180 votes. Looks like Mike Gravel fan Stephen Blythe has easily won the Dem privilege to get beaten by Bill Posey over in FL-15.
8:26PM: Keller has pushed ahead to a 2500 vote lead now, while Harrell is clinging to a 400 vote lead over Rooney with 18% in.
8:21PM: Grayson has really run away with FL-08. The results so far are almost a complete reversal of the 2006 primary. Grayson turned a 2500 vote deficit in Orange County into a 5000 vote lead, and close losses in Marion and Lake counties into blowouts. Looks like shaving off the scary beard helped!
8:15PM: SSP is calling FL-10 for Bob Hackworth, who has wrecked shop against Sammwise Simpson and Max Linn.
8:00PM: Grayson has pushed ahead to a 5800 vote lead, while Keller is still holding on by 1600 votes.
7:51PM: The DoS now shows Harrell up with a 1000-vote lead in FL-16.
7:46PM: According to the DoS, Grayson now has a 20% lead over Stuart, with a cushion of 5600 votes. Ric Keller has now padded his margin over Todd Long to 1,500 votes and 4%. Still, this race is way closer than it should have been.
7:40PM: Keller continues to lead by 1,200 votes, and Rooney is now edging ahead to a 200 vote lead with 10% reporting.
7:35PM ET: Rooney is leading Harrell by one vote with 6% reporting in FL-16, according to the AP.
7:26PM ET: Alan Grayson has a big early lead in FL-08 according to the DoS — 10,922 to Charlie Stuart’s 6,065, with Mike Smith lagging in third. More shockingly, Ric Keller is barely beating his right-wing challenger, Todd Long, by 14,850 to 13,743 among the early votes. Wow.
In other words, who is the weakest Repub and thus easiest for Mahoney to beat?
Keller looks to be in a battle at least early, up only 51-49.
And the DoS page doesn’t list number of precincts reporting.
5th – Too bad Democrats didn’t find a real “winner” to take on “drill NOW” Brown-Waite.
7th – Mica brings millions into this Republican leaning district. No way any Democrat is winning here this year.
8th – Keller made two mistakes: he lodged a personal attack against his opponent, even when Keller ended up leaving his wife for a congressional staffer. The second mistake was that Keller actually debated Long. Keller performed awful in the debate and Long came across as knowledgeable. Keller should win, yet his small margin should worry the GOP. Should Keller prevail in November, expect a strong primary challenge in two years.
On the Democratic side, Grayson is the worst of the top three contenders. He is basically self-funding this race. A Keller-Grayson race definately gives an edge to Keller. Had it been Stuart, then a pink slip would be coming Keller’s way fairly soon.
9th – Plant City Mayor John Dicks was viewed as the most promising candidate, yet he isn’t winning in the vote total so far. I always said that the 10th was more winnable than the 9th. Expect the DCCC to make a similar conclusion.
16th – The three-way primary, which initially favored Rooney has gone to Harrell simply because Valeche began airing ads attacking Rooney more than Harrell. As for the strongest opponent against Mahoney, that would be Harrell. She definately has legislative experience and name recognition throughout the district. This will be a very tough race for Mahoney should Harrell prevail, as appears to be the case. The weakest Republican would be the attack dog (Valeche), yet even after self-funding himself, he’s barely competitive.
Didn’t think he had a shot at winning the primary in the 8th. Also, shocked to see Keller barely ahead, I figured he’d win with 70% or more of the vote.
From the Ocala Star-Banner (August 16):
http://www.ocala.com/article/2…
This could be a strong issue in November as well.
Because Grayson doesn’t strike me as the type of guy who can win in November.
The only seats Democrats really have a chance in winning are (ranked in order of winning):
1. Feeney
2. Lincoln Diaz-Balart
3. Mario Diaz-Balart
4. Bill Young
5. Ric Keller
I still think that Stuart would have been the strongest challenger against Keller. Grayson has run only on one issue: war profiteering. The economy, not the war, appears to be the main issue come November.
As for knocking off Buchanan, highly unlikely. He won the race in 2006, even when stronger ethical questions were raised. Further complicating Democratic efforts is Jan Schneider, who has promised to be a spoiler this year.
If Harrell prevails, then Mahoney is in trouble. Should Rooney prevail, then the race is competitive. Unfortunately, Valeche and his bank account, would have been the weakest challenger.
Democrats also failed greatly in recruiting a strong challenger in the 5th and 15th, both districts are winnable with a moderate Democratic challenger.
These Central FL districts were hit hard by Tropical Storm Fay that finally passed over after dumping up to 30 inches of rain in places. Parts of these districts are still literally under water, including much of my own 24th district. This could dampen turnout.
I never saw that coming. Can’t say it’s a good thing though. But then again with Keller barely winning his race I suppose he has a good shot still.
Rooney leads Harrell by 82 votes.
Even my District Attorney who has been in office for 20+ years nearly lost
RJ Larizza (REP) 17141 49.59
John Tanner (REP) 17423 50.41
I’ve known Tanner and his family for my whole life. He’s actually a decent guy for a republican.
By 312 with 49% in.
Grayson definitely surprised me. It could be that people remember Stuart’s 2006 victory over Grayson and subsequent loss to Keller and want to give Grayson a shot this time. Plus Grayson did spend a bit more money on television ads.
Personally I thought Grayson’s debate performances were a little shaky (Stuart and Grayson even got into a little shouting match once), he’ll need to present himself better if he’s going to win. At the moment Repubs have 40,000 to 30,000 advantage based on the primary totals, Grayson will likely need to boost turnout in November, because I doubt Long voters will go to him.
I think this would be somewhat of a surprise, with former mayor of Plant City John Dicks losing to Bill Mitchell in FL-09 at the moment. Obama had even met with Dicks in Plant City on his visit.
They’re always talking about that crazy Alan Grayson! Go Grayson! Charlie Stuart is an ineffectual loser. I’m glad primary voters had the chutzpah to pass over the vapid establishment candidate for the authentic firebrand.
Their website says results start coming in at 9 pm. Would that mean 1 AM EST?
District 9 State House – Republican primary
Peter Boulware (REP) 8,930 84.0%
Jerry Sutphin (REP) 1,702 16.0%
This is an overwhelmingly Democratic district centered in Tallahassee (Leon County). What makes it interesting is that former NFL and Florida State University superstar Peter Boulware is running as a republican. He’s an icon in that part of Florida. No idea how republicans got him to run. This is a district where republicans shouldn’t be able to compete, but Boulware makes it competitive.
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ra…
Too bad FLA got rid of their runoffs. I would love to see these two chew each other up for another month and blow most of their money in the process.
Looks like he’s got it.
is a Republican. He gave money to Huckabee. He’s probably involved in some faith based organizations and what have you.
http://www.newsmeat.com/fec/by…
I called it.
If he puts lots more of his money in and expands beyond his issue I think he can win the GE.
Boulware could definitely makes things interesting on name identification and self funding alone. I suspect he will lose with Obama at the front of the ticket and a lot of folks voting straight Dem, but I could be wrong.
800+ to make up from just seven precincts seems like a tall order.
That Ed Rooney pic made me crack up for a good 30 seconds.
Grayson’s fundraising numbers:
PAC contributions $5,000 (1%)
Individual contributions $63,788 (9%)
Candidate self-financing $600,000 (88%)
Other $16,516 (2%)
http://www.opensecrets.org/rac…
If he is so grassroots oriented and authentic why has less than 10% of his fundraising come from actual donors? He really needs to start raising money seriously to win in November.
Any idea exactly how rich this guy is? He’s already spent more than a half million of his own money. Hopefully he can spend plenty more.